Posts · HRL · November 9, 2026
Hormel: what the market expects from a fallen Dividend King
The price assumes Hormel keeps today's 9% margins, not a return to the 12–14% it earned before 2020.
The two stories
Each story is a set of drivers, valued on the same data. The post explains why each is plausible and what would have to happen for it to come true.
| Story | Revenue growth | Long-run margin | Return on new capital after year 10 | Value per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pricing power keeps fading | 0%, then 2% a year | 8.9%, by year 2 | 8.4% | $20.90 |
| Turnaround works | 0%, then 2% a year | 12%, by year 7 | 10.5% | $31.47 |
Values as of the post's date, from the cases it rests on. A summary only: the stories, their reasons, the sources and the weak spots are in the full post.