Posts · ADP · November 12, 2026
ADP: what the market expects from the company that pays one in six US workers
The price needs ADP to grow revenue 4.76% a year, below the 6.7% median of its last decade.
The two stories
Each story is a set of drivers, valued on the same data. The post explains why each is plausible and what would have to happen for it to come true.
| Story | Revenue growth | Long-run margin | Return on new capital after year 10 | Value per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The moat holds | 6% a year | 29%, by year 5 | 28.3% | $324.12 |
| Rates fall, AI bites | 5% next year, then 3% | 24%, by year 5 | Its cost of capital (8.5%) | $152.69 |
Values as of the post's date, from the cases it rests on. A summary only: the stories, their reasons, the sources and the weak spots are in the full post.