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Companies · ORCL · Software (System & Application)

What does Oracle's price assume?

$128.38, close of November 11, 2026 (Qualuation's records) · scan of November 12, 2026

The margin the price assumes

Revenue grows as its record suggests; the operating margin is solved at today's price.

At $128.38 on November 11, 2026, with growth of 6.2% a year, the price assumes an operating margin of 57.8% by year 5.

The price assumes

57.8%

Operating margin by year 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year median

34.3%

Fiscal 2017–2026, adjusted for R&D and leases

Its industry

34.4%

Software (System & Application), Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes a margin above the company's own median and above its industry's.

Operating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2017-2026The adjusted operating margin each year from 2017 to 2026, its 10-year median of 34.3%, and the 57.8% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%10%20%30%40%50%60%20172020202320262031Fiscal 2017: 35.9%Fiscal 2018: 34.3%Fiscal 2019: 34.3%Fiscal 2020: 36.2%Fiscal 2021: 39.4%Fiscal 2022: 28.7%Fiscal 2023: 30.6%Fiscal 2024: 32.2%Fiscal 2025: 34.2%Fiscal 2026: 32.7%10-year median 34.3%The price assumes 57.8% by 203157.8%the price assumesOperating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2017-2026The adjusted operating margin each year from 2017 to 2026, its 10-year median of 34.3%, and the 57.8% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%10%20%30%40%50%60%201720262031Fiscal 2017: 35.9%Fiscal 2018: 34.3%Fiscal 2019: 34.3%Fiscal 2020: 36.2%Fiscal 2021: 39.4%Fiscal 2022: 28.7%Fiscal 2023: 30.6%Fiscal 2024: 32.2%Fiscal 2025: 34.2%Fiscal 2026: 32.7%median 34.3%The price assumes 57.8% by 203157.8%the price assumes
Operating margin each fiscal year, adjusted for R&D and leases (SEC filings), the 10-year median, and the margin the price assumes by year 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearAdjusted operating margin
201735.9%
201834.3%
201934.3%
202036.2%
202139.4%
202228.7%
202330.6%
202432.2%
202534.2%
202632.7%
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
6.2% a yearFrom its own revenue growth, the lower of its 5- and 10-year rates (here the 10-year).SEC filings, revenue to fiscal 2026
Margin path
From today's margin to 57.8% by year 5Solved at the price. After that, the margin holds.

The growth the price assumes

The operating margin moves to its own median; revenue growth is solved at today's price.

At $128.38 on November 11, 2026, with an operating margin moving to its 10-year median of 34.3% by year 5, the price assumes revenue growth of 16.5% a year for 5 years, slowing to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The price assumes

16.5%

Revenue growth a year, years 1 to 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year growth

6.2%

Revenue, a year on average, from its SEC filings

Its industry

19.6%

Software (System & Application), five years, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes revenue growth above the company's own record, and below its industry's.

Revenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2017 to 2026, its 10-year rate of 6.2%, and the 16.5% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−5%0%5%10%15%20%20172020202320262031Fiscal 2017: 2.0%Fiscal 2018: 4.2%Fiscal 2019: 0.3%Fiscal 2020: −1.1%Fiscal 2021: 3.6%Fiscal 2022: 4.8%Fiscal 2023: 17.7%Fiscal 2024: 6.0%Fiscal 2025: 8.4%Fiscal 2026: 17.3%2027, year 1: the price assumes 16.5%2028, year 2: the price assumes 16.5%2029, year 3: the price assumes 16.5%2030, year 4: the price assumes 16.5%2031, year 5: the price assumes 16.5%10-year rate 6.2%16.5%the price assumesRevenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2017 to 2026, its 10-year rate of 6.2%, and the 16.5% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−5%0%5%10%15%20%201720262031Fiscal 2017: 2.0%Fiscal 2018: 4.2%Fiscal 2019: 0.3%Fiscal 2020: −1.1%Fiscal 2021: 3.6%Fiscal 2022: 4.8%Fiscal 2023: 17.7%Fiscal 2024: 6.0%Fiscal 2025: 8.4%Fiscal 2026: 17.3%2027, year 1: the price assumes 16.5%2028, year 2: the price assumes 16.5%2029, year 3: the price assumes 16.5%2030, year 4: the price assumes 16.5%2031, year 5: the price assumes 16.5%own rate 6.2%16.5%the price assumes
Revenue growth each fiscal year (SEC filings), its 10-year rate, and the growth the price assumes for years 1 to 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearRevenue growth
20172.0%
20184.2%
20190.3%
2020−1.1%
20213.6%
20224.8%
202317.7%
20246.0%
20258.4%
202617.3%
Operating margin
From today's margin to 34.3% by year 5Its own 10-year median, held. After that, the margin holds.SEC filings, fiscal 2017-2026, the median operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
16.5% a yearSolved at the price. From year 6, it slows each year to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The assumptions both views share

These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.

Reinvestment
$1.54 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Software (System & Application)
Cost of capital
8.95%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated A3/A- from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
After year 10
Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.

Worth knowing

  • Revenue grew 10.7% a year over five years and grew 6.2% over ten: the record points two ways.
  • Its industry's margin today is more than 3 points away from its median over the last 6 years of industry data.

This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.

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Sources

  • Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
  • 10-K for the period ended May 31, 2026, filed June 22, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0001193125-26-277521).
  • 10-Q for the period ended August 31, 2026, filed September 11, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0001193125-26-389274).
  • Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2017-2026, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Software (System & Application), adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Revenue growth record: SEC filings, revenue, fiscal 2016-2026, the average yearly growth.
  • Industry growth: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Software (System & Application), revenue growth over five years.
  • Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Software (System & Application).
  • US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
  • Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
  • Industry beta, Software (System & Application) (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
  • Debt rated A3/A- at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • The margin the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the assumptions above.
  • The growth the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the margin at its median and the assumptions above.