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Companies · NKE · Shoe

What does Nike's price assume?

$38.32, close of November 11, 2026 (Qualuation's records) · scan of November 12, 2026

The margin the price assumes

Revenue grows as its record suggests; the operating margin is solved at today's price.

At $38.32 on November 11, 2026, with growth of 0.8% a year, the price assumes an operating margin of 13.8% by year 5.

The price assumes

13.8%

Operating margin by year 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year median

12.9%

Fiscal 2017–2026, adjusted for R&D and leases

Its industry

9.1%

Shoe, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes a margin above the company's own median and above its industry's.

Operating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2017-2026The adjusted operating margin each year from 2017 to 2026, its 10-year median of 12.9%, and the 13.8% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%5%10%15%20%20172020202320262031Fiscal 2017: 14.5%Fiscal 2018: 12.2%Fiscal 2019: 14.8%Fiscal 2020: 8.5%Fiscal 2021: 16.0%Fiscal 2022: 15.1%Fiscal 2023: 12.6%Fiscal 2024: 13.3%Fiscal 2025: 8.8%Fiscal 2026: 9.0%10-year median 12.9%The price assumes 13.8% by 203113.8%the price assumesOperating margin, adjusted, fiscal 2017-2026The adjusted operating margin each year from 2017 to 2026, its 10-year median of 12.9%, and the 13.8% the price assumes by 2031, year 5.ahead0%5%10%15%20%201720262031Fiscal 2017: 14.5%Fiscal 2018: 12.2%Fiscal 2019: 14.8%Fiscal 2020: 8.5%Fiscal 2021: 16.0%Fiscal 2022: 15.1%Fiscal 2023: 12.6%Fiscal 2024: 13.3%Fiscal 2025: 8.8%Fiscal 2026: 9.0%median 12.9%The price assumes 13.8% by 203113.8%the price assumes
Operating margin each fiscal year, adjusted for R&D and leases (SEC filings), the 10-year median, and the margin the price assumes by year 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearAdjusted operating margin
201714.5%
201812.2%
201914.8%
20208.5%
202116.0%
202215.1%
202312.6%
202413.3%
20258.8%
20269.0%
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
0.8% a yearFrom its own revenue growth, the lower of its 5- and 10-year rates (here the 5-year).SEC filings, revenue to fiscal 2026
Margin path
From today's margin to 13.8% by year 5Solved at the price. After that, the margin holds.

The growth the price assumes

The operating margin moves to its own median; revenue growth is solved at today's price.

At $38.32 on November 11, 2026, with an operating margin moving to its 10-year median of 12.9% by year 5, the price assumes revenue growth of 2.2% a year for 5 years, slowing to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The price assumes

2.2%

Revenue growth a year, years 1 to 5, solved at the price

Its 10-year growth

3.7%

Revenue, a year on average, from its SEC filings

Its industry

12.4%

Shoe, five years, Damodaran Online, January 2026

The price assumes revenue growth below the company's own record and below its industry's.

Revenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2017 to 2026, its 10-year rate of 3.7%, and the 2.2% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−10%−5%0%5%10%15%20%20172020202320262031Fiscal 2017: 6.1%Fiscal 2018: 6.0%Fiscal 2019: 7.5%Fiscal 2020: −4.4%Fiscal 2021: 19.1%Fiscal 2022: 4.9%Fiscal 2023: 9.6%Fiscal 2024: 0.3%Fiscal 2025: −9.8%Fiscal 2026: 0.2%2027, year 1: the price assumes 2.2%2028, year 2: the price assumes 2.2%2029, year 3: the price assumes 2.2%2030, year 4: the price assumes 2.2%2031, year 5: the price assumes 2.2%10-year rate 3.7%2.2%the price assumesRevenue growth each fiscal yearRevenue growth each fiscal year from 2017 to 2026, its 10-year rate of 3.7%, and the 2.2% a year the price assumes for 2027 to 2031, years 1 to 5.ahead−10%−5%0%5%10%15%20%201720262031Fiscal 2017: 6.1%Fiscal 2018: 6.0%Fiscal 2019: 7.5%Fiscal 2020: −4.4%Fiscal 2021: 19.1%Fiscal 2022: 4.9%Fiscal 2023: 9.6%Fiscal 2024: 0.3%Fiscal 2025: −9.8%Fiscal 2026: 0.2%2027, year 1: the price assumes 2.2%2028, year 2: the price assumes 2.2%2029, year 3: the price assumes 2.2%2030, year 4: the price assumes 2.2%2031, year 5: the price assumes 2.2%own rate 3.7%2.2%the price assumes
Revenue growth each fiscal year (SEC filings), its 10-year rate, and the growth the price assumes for years 1 to 5.
The numbers behind the chart
Fiscal yearRevenue growth
20176.1%
20186.0%
20197.5%
2020−4.4%
202119.1%
20224.9%
20239.6%
20240.3%
2025−9.8%
20260.2%
Operating margin
From today's margin to 12.9% by year 5Its own 10-year median, held. After that, the margin holds.SEC filings, fiscal 2017-2026, the median operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases
Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
2.2% a yearSolved at the price. From year 6, it slows each year to the riskfree rate by year 10.

The assumptions both views share

These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.

Reinvestment
$2.62 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Shoe
Cost of capital
8.20%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated Aaa/AAA from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
After year 10
Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.

Worth knowing

  • Its industry's margin today is more than 3 points away from its median over the last 6 years of industry data.

This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.

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Sources

  • Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
  • 10-K for the period ended May 31, 2026, filed July 15, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000320187-26-000088).
  • 10-Q for the period ended August 31, 2026, filed October 2, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000320187-26-000193).
  • Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2017-2026, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Shoe, adjusted for R&D and leases.
  • Revenue growth record: SEC filings, revenue, fiscal 2016-2026, the average yearly growth.
  • Industry growth: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Shoe, revenue growth over five years.
  • Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Shoe.
  • US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
  • Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
  • Industry beta, Shoe (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
  • Debt rated Aaa/AAA at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
  • The margin the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the assumptions above.
  • The growth the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the margin at its median and the assumptions above.