Companies · INTC · Semiconductor
What does Intel's price assume?
The margin the price assumes
At neutral growth, no operating margin between −50% and 80% matches today's price.
The growth the price assumes
The operating margin moves to its own median; revenue growth is solved at today's price.
At $62.50 on November 11, 2026, with an operating margin moving to its 10-year median of 26.7% by year 5, the price assumes revenue growth of 23.1% a year for 5 years, slowing to the riskfree rate by year 10.
The price assumes
23.1%
Revenue growth a year, years 1 to 5, solved at the price
Its 10-year growth
−0.5%
Revenue, a year on average, from its SEC filings
Its industry
11.2%
Semiconductor, five years, Damodaran Online, January 2026
The price assumes revenue growth above the company's own record and above its industry's.
The numbers behind the chart
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 7.3% |
| 2017 | 5.7% |
| 2018 | 12.9% |
| 2019 | 1.6% |
| 2020 | 8.2% |
| 2021 | 1.5% |
| 2022 | −20.2% |
| 2023 | −14.0% |
| 2024 | −2.1% |
| 2025 | −0.5% |
- Operating margin
- From today's margin to 26.7% by year 5Its own 10-year median, held. After that, the margin holds.SEC filings, fiscal 2016-2025, the median operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases
- Revenue growth, years 1 to 5
- 23.1% a yearSolved at the price. From year 6, it slows each year to the riskfree rate by year 10.
The assumptions both views share
These are neutral settings, the same for every company. Each view holds them and solves for one driver at today's price.
- Reinvestment
- $1.21 of revenue for each $1 investedThe industry's sales-to-capital ratio: how much new capital growth needs.Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Semiconductor
- Cost of capital
- 10.09%The return investors need for the risk: the industry's beta, the market's risk premium, and debt rated Aaa/AAA from its median margin, with a stated 5-year debt maturity. Built by the engine from the parts listed under Sources, each with its date.
- After year 10
- Growth at the riskfree rate, foreverNew investment earns its cost of capital and no more, so growth after year 10 adds no value, and the cost of capital moves to a mature company's.
Worth knowing
- The growth used is a decline: the lower of its 5- and 10-year revenue rates is negative.
- Revenue shrank 7.5% a year over five years and shrank 0.5% over ten: the record points two ways.
- Its industry's margin today is more than 3 points away from its median over the last 6 years of industry data.
- Its margin moved over a range of 39.8% in ten years, so its median is a weak yardstick.
This is a mechanical starting point with neutral assumptions, not a valuation. The story decides.
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- Price: Qualuation's records, close of November 11, 2026.
- 10-K for the period ended December 27, 2025, filed January 23, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000050863-26-000011).
- 10-Q for the period ended September 26, 2026, filed October 30, 2026 (SEC EDGAR, accession 0000050863-26-000191).
- Margin record: SEC filings, fiscal 2016-2025, operating margin adjusted for R&D and leases.
- Industry margin: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Semiconductor, adjusted for R&D and leases.
- Revenue growth record: SEC filings, revenue, fiscal 2015-2025, the average yearly growth.
- Industry growth: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Semiconductor, revenue growth over five years.
- Sales to capital: Damodaran Online, January 2026 industry data, Semiconductor.
- US 10-year Treasury yield (FRED), October 29, 2026.
- Less the US default spread (Damodaran Online, July 2026).
- Industry beta, Semiconductor (Damodaran Online, January 2026).
- Equity risk premium (Damodaran Online, October 2026).
- Debt rated Aaa/AAA at its median margin (rating table, Damodaran Online, January 2026).
- The growth the price assumes: solved by the engine at the price on November 12, 2026, with the margin at its median and the assumptions above.